Question: How reliable is seasonal data? Is making money from it all that simple?

Answer: To answer the second question first – no it’s not always simple. Anyone that tells you they have a trading method that is fool proof is either a fool or a liar. This is why you need to get good information.

There are times when any trading method works well and other times when it does not. Seasonal trading is no different. 2008 year was a great year for seasonal trading. 2007 was not so good for seasonal trading but 2006, 2008 and 2009 (so far) has been terrific.

So, how reliable is seasonal data? The data I use goes back as far as 25 years and looks for high correlation patterns - patterns that appear to be reliable. In fact normally I look for trades that show a strike rate of at least 80%. Sometimes the trades I look at have a historical strike rate of 100%. But that is the past. That is no guarantee that the trade will work tomorrow. What is guaranteed is that all trades are based off sound historical data and reasoning that offer a higher probability of success.

Pick up Market Wizards or any other similar book and the traders will tell you short term trading success ebbs and flows, but the key is to have a sound trading method with respect for risk as this will win in the long run.

-Guy Bower

Disclaimer: There is a Risk of Loss in Futures Trading
DISCLAIMER HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER OR OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. THE RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES TRADING CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST PROFITS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE. THERE IS A RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES TRADING.THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN HAS BEEN OBTAINED FROM SOURCES BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE, HOWEVER IT CANNOT BE GUARANTEED AS TO ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS, AND IT IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. IT SHOULD NOT BE ASSUMED THAT THE SEASONAL PRICE TENDENCIES SHOWN HEREIN OR THAT THE SUGGESTIONS REGARDING THEIR USE WILL BE PROFITABLE OR THAT THEY WILL NOT RESULT IN LOSSES. PROTRADER LLC, ITS MEMBERS OR EMPLOYEES ASSUME NO LIABILITY IN CONNECTION WITH THE USE OF THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN.